A stochastic population model of cholera disease
Witbooi, Peter J
Muller, Grant E
Ongansie, Marshall B
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A cholera population model with stochastic transmission and stochasticity on the environmental reservoir of the cholera bacteria is presented. It is shown that solutions are well-behaved. In comparison with the underlying deterministic model, the stochastic perturbation is shown to enhance stability of the disease-free equilibrium. The main extinction theorem is formulated in terms of an invariant which is a modification of the basic reproduction number of the underlying deterministic model. As an application, the model is calibrated as for a certain province of Nigeria. In particular, a recent outbreak (2019) in Nigeria is analysed and featured through simulations. Simulations include making forward projections in the form of confidence intervals. Also, the extinction theorem is illustrated through simulations.