A population model for the 2017/18 listeriosis outbreak in South Africa

Abstract

We introduce a compartmental model of ordinary differential equations for the population dynamics of listeriosis, and we derive a model for analysing a listeriosis outbreak. The model explicitly accommodates neonatal infections. Similarly as is common in cholera modeling, we include a compartment to represent the reservoir of bacteria. We also include a compartment to represent the incubation phase. For the 2017/18 listeriosis outbreak that happened in South Africa, we calculate the time pattern and intensity of the force of infection, and we determine numerical values for some of the parameters in the model. The model is calibrated using South African data, together with existing data in the open literature not necessarily from South Africa. We make projections on the future outlook of the epidemiology of the disease and the possibility of eradication.