Library Portal | UWC Portal | National ETDs | Global ETDs
    • Login
    Contact Us | About Us | FAQs | Login
    View Item 
    •   DSpace Home
    • Faculty of Natural Sciences
    • Mathematics
    • Research Articles (Mathematics)
    • View Item
    •   DSpace Home
    • Faculty of Natural Sciences
    • Mathematics
    • Research Articles (Mathematics)
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Modelling the effect of bednet coverage on malaria transmission in South Sudan

    Thumbnail
    View/Open
    Mukhtar_Modelling-the-bednet_2018.pdf (3.651Mb)
    Date
    2018
    Author
    Mukhtar, Abdulaziz Y. A.
    Munyakazi, Justin B.
    Ouifki, Rachid
    Clark, Allan E.
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Abstract
    A campaign for malaria control, using Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLINs) was launched in South Sudan in 2009. The success of such a campaign often depends upon adequate available resources and reliable surveillance data which help officials understand existing infections. An optimal allocation of resources for malaria control at a sub-national scale is therefore paramount to the success of efforts to reduce malaria prevalence. In this paper, we extend an existing SIR mathematical model to capture the effect of LLINs on malaria trans- mission. Available data on malaria is utilized to determine realistic parameter values of this model using a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Then, we explore the parasite prevalence on a continued rollout of LLINs in three different settings in order to create a sub-national projection of malaria. Further, we calculate the model’s basic reproductive number and study its sensitivity to LLINs’ coverage and its efficacy. From the numerical simulation results, we notice a basic reproduction number, R0 , confirming a substantial increase of incidence cases if no form of intervention takes place in the commu- nity. This work indicates that an effective use of LLINs may reduce R0 and hence malaria transmission. We hope that this study will provide a basis for recommending a scaling-up of the entry point of LLINs’ distribution that targets households in areas at risk of malaria.
    URI
    https://doi.org/ 10.1371/journal.pone.0198280
    http://hdl.handle.net/10566/3802
    Collections
    • Research Articles (Mathematics)

    DSpace 6.3 | Ubuntu | Copyright © University of the Western Cape
    Contact Us | Send Feedback
    Theme by 
    Atmire NV
     

     

    Browse

    All of DSpaceCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects

    My Account

    Login

    Statistics

    View Usage Statistics

    DSpace 6.3 | Ubuntu | Copyright © University of the Western Cape
    Contact Us | Send Feedback
    Theme by 
    Atmire NV