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    Stochastic modeling of a mosquito-borne disease

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    Witbooi2020_Article_StochasticModelingOfAMosquito-.pdf (1.632Mb)
    Date
    2020
    Author
    Abiodun, Gbenga J.
    Witbooi, Peter Joseph
    van Schalkwyk, Garth J.
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    Abstract
    We present and analyze a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model for the population dynamics of a mosquito-borne infectious disease. We prove the solutions to be almost surely positive and global. We introduce a numerical invariant R of the model with R<1 being a condition guaranteeing the almost sure stability of the disease-free equilibrium. We show that stochastic perturbations enhance the stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the underlying deterministic model. We illustrate the main stability theorem through simulations and show how to obtain interval estimates when making forward projections. We consulted a wide range of literature to find relevant numerical parameter values.
    URI
    https://doi.org/10.1186/s13662-020-02803-w
    http://hdl.handle.net/10566/5446
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    • Research Articles (Mathematics)

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