Review of the current models and approaches used for maize crop yield forecasting in sub-Saharan Africa, and their potential use in early warning systems

Abstract

Agriculture is the mainstay of many developing economies, and successful production is intricately linked to food security, economic development, and regional stability. Estimates of crop yield for strategic grain crops, such as maize (Zea mays L.) have been used in national food security planning to develop response strategies in years of shortfalls and secure markets in years of surplus. Past studies have shown that despite the potential of models in maize crop yield assessment, they have not been effectively used in understanding seasonal and annual production dynamics. Thus, stakeholders require the availability of accurate and timely data on maize production potential and hence the development and application of crop yield models for maize yield estimation. However, current methods of assessing maize crop yields are based on field assessments, which are expensive, laborious and inaccurate. This mixed methods paper, therefore, aimed to; (i) review information sources for maize crop yield assessments, looking at their strengths, limitations, and potential for application in sub-Saharan Africa, (ii) perform trend and distribution analyses of publications in maize crop yield simulation, and (iii) discuss the challenges in the application of models in agriculture planning in the African agriculture systems.