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    An approach to developing a prediction model of fertility intent among HIV-positive women and men in Cape Town, South Africa: a case study

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    Date
    2017
    Author
    Bai, Dan
    Leu, Cheng-Shiun
    Mantell, Joanne E.
    Exner, Theresa M.
    Cooper, Diane
    Hoffman, Susie
    Kelvin, Elizabeth A.
    Myer, Landon
    Constant, Debbie
    Moodley, Jennifer
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    Abstract
    As a ‘case-study’ to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70–1.00), specificity (0.66–0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79–0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counselling around fertility options.
    URI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10461-016-1441-7
    http://hdl.handle.net/10566/3865
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    • Research Articles (SoPH) [426]

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